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9_Predictive Models

The master plan was developed using a suite of predictive models to determine projects’ effects on the coast. The modeling process provides a holistic understanding of our coastal environment today and the changes we can expect over the next 50 years.

The technical reports documenting the models is included in the master plan’s Appendix C: Modeling. Information is comprised of five chapters – Introduction, Future Scenarios, Modeling Components and Overview, Model Outcomes and Interpretations, and Use of Model Outputs and Conclusions. Each chapter of Appendix C is linked below along with attachments that provide additional information. The modeling appendices can be found here.

Modeling Update Webinars

Over the course of the plan development process, CPRA held a series of webinars focused specifically on the technical updates and the modeling effort.

Modeling Webinar#2

(9/22/2015) The second webinar provided an overview of the suite of modeling tools that have been developed to support the 2017 Coastal Master Plan. To view the webinar, please click here. To download the webinar’s corresponding PowerPoint slides, please click here.

As the webinar is 2.5 hours, please find below the list of presented topics with the corresponding times that mark when each topic’s presentation begins. Please note that each presentation topic is followed by Q&A.

Modeling Webinar#3

(9/22/2016) The third webinar discussed the landscape/ecosystem, storm surge/wave, and risk assessment model results for Initial Condition, Future Without Action, and projects and project interactions. To view the webinar, please click here.  To download the webinar’s corresponding PowerPoint slides, please click here.

Model Improvement Plan

The 2012 Coastal Master Plan was based on state-of-the-art science and analysis, and the 2017 effort builds upon this further. CPRA, The Water Institute of the Gulf, and a team of over 50 additional experts developed the Model Improvement Plan to guide refinements and advancement to the models that would be used for the 2017 Coastal Master Plan. To view the Model Improvement Plan, please click here.