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Modeling

9_Predictive Models

The Coastal Master Plan was developed using a suite of predictive models to determine projects’ effects on the coast. The modeling process provides a holistic understanding of our coastal environment today and the changes we can expect over the next 50 years.

The technical reports documenting the models is included in the master plan’s Appendix C: Modeling. Information is comprised of five chapters – Introduction, Future Scenarios, Modeling Components and Overview, Model Outcomes and Interpretations, and Use of Model Outputs and Conclusions. Each chapter of Appendix C is linked below along with attachments that provide additional information.

Chapter 1 – Introduction

Chapter 2 – Future Scenarios

Attachment C2-1: Eustatic Sea Level Rise

Attachment C2-2: Subsidence

Attachment C2-3: Precipitation and Evapotranspiration

Attachment C2-4: Tropical Storm Intensity and Frequency

Attachment C2-5: Options for Sensitivity Analyses

Chapter 3 – Modeling Components and Overview

Attachment C3-1: Sediment Distribution

Attachment C3-1.1: Sediment Distribution Supporting Information

Attachment C3-2: Marsh Edge Erosion

Attachment C3-3: Storms in the ICM Boundary Conditions

Attachment C3-4: Barrier Island Model Development (BIMODE)

Attachment C3-5: Vegetation

Attachment C3-6: Gadwall Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-7: Green-winged Teal Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-8: Mottled Duck Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-9: Brown Pelican Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-10: Alligator Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-11: Blue Crab Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-12: Eastern Oyster Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-13: Brown Shrimp Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-14: White Shrimp Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-15: Gulf Menhaden Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-16: Spotted Seatrout Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-17: Bay Anchovy Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-18: Largemouth Bass Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-19: Crayfish Habitat Suitability Index Model

Attachment C3-20: Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)

Attachment C3-21: Nitrogen Uptake

Attachment C3-22: Integrated Compartment Model (ICM) Development

Attachment C3-22.1: ICM-Hydro Flow Calculations

Attachment C3-22.2: File Naming Convention

Attachment C3-23: ICM Calibration, Validation, and Performance Assessment

Attachment C3-23.1: Hydrology Station Locations

Attachment C3-23.2: Model Performance – Stage

Attachment C3-23.3: Model Performance – Flow

Attachment C3-23.4: Model Performance – Salinity

Attachment C3-23.5: Model Performance – Total Suspended Solids

Attachment C3-23.6: Model Performance – Temperature

Attachment C3-23.7: Model Performance – Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen

Attachment C3-23.8: Model Performance – Total Phosphorus

Attachment C3-24: Integrated Compartment Model Uncertainty Analysis

Attachment C3-25: Storm Surge and Risk Assessment

Attachment C3-25.1: Storm Surge

Attachment C3-26: Hydrology and Water Quality Boundary Conditions

Attachment C3-26.1: Monitoring Station List

Attachment C3-26.2: Flow Data

Attachment C3-26.3: Water Level Data

Attachment C3-26.4: Water Quality Stations and Locations

Attachment C3-27: Landscape Data

Chapter 4 – Model Outcomes and Interpretations

Attachment C4-1: Modeling Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC)

Attachment C4-2: Mid-Breton Sound Diversion (001.DI.23) Model Output

Attachment C4-3: South Terrebonne Marsh Creation (03a.MC.100) Model Output

Attachment C4-4: Calcasieu Ship Channel Salinity Control Measures (004.HR.06) Model Output

Attachment C4-5: Lake Hermitage Shoreline Protection (002.SP.100) Model Output

Attachment C4-6: Grand Lake Bank Stabilization (004.BS.01) Model Output

Attachment C4-7: Bayou Decade Ridge Restoration (03a.RC.01) Model Output

Attachment C4-8: Barataria Pass to Sandy Point Barrier Island Restoration (002.BH.04) Model Output

Attachment C4-9: Biloxi Marsh Oyster Reef (001.OR.01a) Model Output

Attachment C4-10: Draft Master Plan Model Output

Attachment C4-11: Metrics

Attachment C4-11.1: Metric Values by Project

Attachment C4-11.2: Social Vulnerability Index

Chapter 5 – Modeling Conclusions and Looking Forward

Attachment C5-1: Predictive Models Technical Advisory Committee (PM-TAC) Report

Attachment C5-2: Additional Comments

If you have any questions regarding this information, please email us at MasterPlan@la.gov.

Modeling Update Webinars

Over the course of the plan development process, CPRA held a series of webinars focused specifically on the technical updates and the modeling effort.

Modeling Webinar#2

(9/22/2015) The second webinar provided an overview of the suite of modeling tools that have been developed to support the 2017 Coastal Master Plan. To view the webinar, please click here. To download the webinar’s corresponding PowerPoint slides, please click here.

As the webinar is 2.5 hours, please find below the list of presented topics with the corresponding times that mark when each topic’s presentation begins. Please note that each presentation topic is followed by Q&A.

Modeling Webinar#3

(9/22/2016) The third webinar discussed the landscape/ecosystem, storm surge/wave, and risk assessment model results for Initial Condition, Future Without Action, and projects and project interactions. To view the webinar, please click here.  To download the webinar’s corresponding PowerPoint slides, please click here.

Model Improvement Plan

The 2012 Coastal Master Plan was based on state-of-the-art science and analysis, and the 2017 effort builds upon this further. CPRA, The Water Institute of the Gulf, and a team of over 50 additional experts developed the Model Improvement Plan to guide refinements and advancement to the models that would be used for the 2017 Coastal Master Plan. To view the Model Improvement Plan, please click here.